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Field Note

Gemini 4 Carbon is priced like Argon. You cannot buy it yet

Google’s strongest model costs the same as Argon and is open to a closed group of cyber defenders. For everyone else, the live decision is still Argon’s price rise on 30 November.

PBy Prestanda Consulting
Field Note · 29 Oct 2026 · Written the day after the announcement

What happened

Google announced Gemini 4 Carbon on 28 October, two weeks after Gemini 4 Argon, calling it “our strongest model with state-of-the-art cybersecurity and long horizon capabilities” (vendor, Google). Access starts with a subset of cyber defenders and widens gradually to trusted partners through Google’s Fairwind Program. There is no general availability date (independent, RuntimeWire).

The price matches Argon’s: $2 per million input tokens and $10 per million output tokens during an introductory period, then $4 and $20. Cached input is 95% off, so $0.10 per million cached tokens rising to $0.20 (vendor; our maths). Google does not say when the introductory period ends.

Google reports Carbon first on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index v5.0 at 59, with 88.2% on SEC-bench Pro, 54.8% on ExploitGym, and 71.0% on CWE-bench. It says external benchmarks were run without guardrails (vendor; also reported by 9to5Google). Nobody outside Fairwind can test those claims yet.

Why it matters, and to whom

For an AI platform or procurement lead, Carbon changes nothing that can be bought this quarter. What it does change is the shape of the Argon decision.

Argon’s introductory price of $2 and $10 ends on 30 November and then doubles (our 14 October note). A buyer evaluating Gemini today can test Argon, on a price that rises in a month, against a successor at the same price that it cannot run. Argon followed the same path, announced for cyber defenders on 30 September and generally available on 13 October. That is a precedent, not a commitment from Google.

What to decide this month

  1. Step 1. Price the commitment on list rates. Model any Gemini commitment at $4 and $20, not the introductory $2 and $10. Owner: procurement.
  2. Step 2. Test Argon on your own work now. Measure cost per solved task on a real workload before 30 November. Owner: AI platform lead.
  3. Step 3. Make the commitment portable. Ask for the right to move committed spend from Argon to Carbon at the same terms when Carbon reaches your account. Owner: procurement.

Missing

  • A general availability date, and which surfaces it will reach: the Gemini API, Vertex AI, or Gemini Enterprise.
  • The end date of Carbon’s introductory price.
  • The context window.
  • Any independent test. Every figure above is Google’s.

Frequently asked questions

Can we use Gemini 4 Carbon today?

Only if you are one of the cyber defenders Google selected for its Fairwind Program. Google says it will widen access to trusted partners gradually and bring Carbon to developers, businesses, and consumers as soon as possible. It has given no date.

What will Carbon cost?

Google lists an introductory price of $2 per million input tokens and $10 per million output tokens, then $4 and $20. Cached input is 95% off. Google has not said how long the introductory period lasts.

Should we wait for Carbon instead of committing to Argon?

Do not sign a commitment priced on either model’s introductory rate. Argon’s ends on 30 November. Test Argon on your own workload now, and make any commitment portable to Carbon at the same terms when it becomes available.

Living page. Last updated 29 Oct 2026. We update this note when Google dates general availability or the end of the introductory price.